Diversificação e Elasticidade das Fontes de Recursos dos Estados Brasileiros e suas Relações com os Déficits de Arrecadação
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21118/apgs.v12i3.6035Abstract
A pesquisa analisou a influência da diversificação e da elasticidade das fontes próprias de receitas correntes na ocorrência e na magnitude dos erros da previsão orçamentária nos estados brasileiros. Para tanto, dados das estimativas e arrecadação foram coletados e analisados com o auxílio de modelos Logit e Tobit com a técnica de Dados em Painel. Observou-se baixa diversificação das fontes de recursos, existindo uma sobrecarga nas receitas tributárias. Nesse cenário, o peso atribuído a categorias específicas pode ser amortizado explorando-se as possibilidades de captação de recursos em outras áreas, como as receitas de serviços, industriais e agropecuárias. Além disso, a elasticidade das receitas próprias influencia tanto a ocorrência como a magnitude dos déficits de arrecadação, sendo recomendada a gestão de receitas mais elásticas para acompanhar o crescimento da renda estadual no longo prazo e a composição de um mix com receitas elásticas e inelásticas em momentos de instabilidade econômica no curto prazo.
Palavras-chave: Gestão, Previsão, Estrutura, Receitas.
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