DINÂMICA DE SISTEMAS E A MODELAGEM DOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS DA BACIA DO RIO PRETO COM O USO DO PROGRAMA STELLA

Abstract

The absence of evaluation of the questions about prediction in the implantation of projects has been a rule. In this study searches the existent interrelations of the changes of the kinds of use of the soil and his influences over climatic factors and the aquatic ecosystems, in the hydrographic basin of the Preto river, affluent of Paracatu river. In this place, where the medium annual retired emptying by “Irrigation” in the basin have had an increase of 62 times in the period 1970- 1996, producing a regional series of conflicts, it has happened the replacement of the native vegetation “Cerrado” for “Cultivation”. The situation is worry when it is verified by analysis of the water offering in the period of 1985-2000, that the “Precipitation”, in the basin and the medium and minimum emptyings have had significant reductions. The proposal of this search was develop a model of offering and request use of water, based in the origins of “Dynamic of the Systems” with the aid of the SOFTWARE STELLA. By intermediate of the modeling was possible express by graphic the dynamic complexity of the relations of this system. The calibration of the model was realized by the facts of the river station, “Porto dos Poções”, they were collected in the period 1985-2000. With the model simulation for the period 1995-2060, it was verified the tendency of decrease of -23,08% in the “Precipitation” in the agronomic trade scenery at the moment.