Probabilistic analysis of load capacity of deep foundations using the point estimate method

Abstract

This study addresses the probabilistic analysis of the load capacity of deep foundations in continuous, precast and Strauss stake helix piles, with 3 load variations for each type of stake and 3 different diameters for each stake as well, thus resulting in 9 calculations for each stake. To calculate the ultimate load capacity, the Décourt and Quaresma method was used, recognized for its effectiveness in geotechnical analysis. The probability of rupture was determined using the Rosenblueth point estimates method, a robust method to evaluate uncertainty. The calculations were carried out with the help of the MATLAB software. The results obtained show that the probability of rupture varies significantly depending on the diameter of the piles, being higher in smaller diameter piles, especially under higher workloads. The conclusions indicate the importance of a careful selection of the diameter of the piles to ensure structural safety, minimizing the risks of failure. Comparisons with previous studies are made to validate the results obtained and suggest improvements in the design of deep foundations.